“Flash flooding remains a threat as rainbands from Chantal move inland across northeastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina,” the National Hurricane Center warned early Sunday. It’s the kind of message that’s become all too familiar for residents of the Carolinas, where back-to-back 1,000-year storms have become a reality rather than a statistical anomaly.
Tropical Storm Chantal, the third named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, swept ashore Sunday morning, drenching the Carolinas and stretching its soggy reach from eastern Florida up to Delaware. According to AccuWeather, most areas are bracing for 1 to 2 inches of rain, but central and eastern North Carolina and northern coastal South Carolina are in for a soaking—2 to 4 inches, with some spots between Wilmington and Myrtle Beach expecting 4 to 8 inches of rainfall. The National Weather Service has issued tropical storm warnings and flood advisories, and the South Carolina Emergency Management Division is urging everyone to stay out of the ocean and keep an eye on official alerts.
The impact isn’t just numbers on a map. In Texas, the aftermath of catastrophic flooding at Camp Mystic—a 99-year-old Christian summer camp—offers a sobering case study. When the Guadalupe River swelled overnight, 750 campers and their families faced a terrifying ordeal, with at least 25 children reported missing and 24 people killed. As Kerrville’s city manager Dalton Rice explained, “This happened very quickly, over a very short period of time, that could not be predicted, even with the radar.” The speed of the event meant evacuation orders couldn’t be issued in time, and some bodies were found in vehicles swept away by the floodwaters. The river crested at levels considered moderate flood stage, but the devastation was anything but moderate.
Closer to home, a historic bridge was swept away by flooding on the San Gabriel River, a stark reminder that infrastructure isn’t always built to withstand the kinds of storms now battering the Southeast. The Carolinas, in particular, have seen a string of extreme rainfall events in recent years, including record-setting rainstorms in October 2015, Hurricane Matthew in 2016, Hurricane Florence in 2018, and Hurricane Helene in 2024. According to Russ Schumacher, Colorado State Climatologist, “the frequency of heavy rainfall has increased as a result of human-caused climate change. Warmer air can hold more moisture, and warmer oceans provide that moisture as the fuel for heavy rainfall.”
Yet, even as storms grow more intense, gaps in emergency warning systems persist. Kerrville, for example, lacked the weather sirens that other cities use to alert residents to imminent danger—a detail that proved critical during the Camp Mystic flood. This highlights the need for communities to adopt best practices for flood preparedness and early warning. The South Carolina Emergency Management Division recommends monitoring official weather alerts, following instructions from local officials, and avoiding risky activities like swimming during high rip current warnings.
Looking at the bigger picture, the Carolinas’ vulnerability is rooted in both geography and climate trends. Tropical cyclones have produced 25% of the top 100 rainfall events since 1949, and the largest number of these events has occurred in just the last decade. As Schumacher notes, “NOAA is currently developing Atlas 15, which will update current estimates with more recent data and will incorporate the effects of climate change.” These updates will help planners and engineers design infrastructure that can withstand the new normal of extreme rainfall.
In the meantime, the lessons from Chantal and recent storms are clear: Stay alert, stay prepared, and push for the systems and infrastructure that can keep communities safe. The weather dice may be loaded, but communities can stack the odds in their favor with smart planning and real-time communication.
